Deep sea mining is usually framed as an environmental and regulatory debate. It is also a competition story. If polymetallic nodules reach commercial scale, they would introduce new manganese, nickel, cobalt, and copper units into markets where supply is already concentrated. The result would be a transfer of pricing power away from incumbent land based producers.
As deep sea mining becomes more plausible, the incumbents whose rents are at risk are unlikely to sit still. Pressure can show up through:
• policy and permitting
• customer and financing pressure
• broader efforts to harden public opposition to the sector
The anti deep sea mining ecosystem already exists. Any country, company, or industrial system threatened by a credible nodule industry would have a clear incentive to view that ecosystem as strategically useful.
Why nodules matter
Polymetallic nodules are the key near term deposit type because they bundle manganese, nickel, cobalt, and copper into one feedstock. That matters because a successful nodule operation is not just a new nickel or cobalt project. It is a multi metal supply shock with byproduct credits that may allow it to compete aggressively on cost.
The countries most exposed are those that either dominate current supply or rely heavily on the affected metals.
Table 1. Countries most exposed on current mine supply
| Country | Metal | 2025 mine production | Share of global mine supply |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indonesia | Nickel | 2.60 Mt | 66.7% |
| Philippines | Nickel | 0.27 Mt | 6.9% |
| Russia | Nickel | 0.20 Mt | 5.1% |
| Canada | Nickel | 0.14 Mt | 3.6% |
| New Caledonia | Nickel | 0.14 Mt | 3.6% |
| DRC | Cobalt | 230 kt | 74.2% |
| Indonesia | Cobalt | 44 kt | 14.2% |
| South Africa | Manganese | 7.60 Mt | 38.0% |
| Gabon | Manganese | 5.00 Mt | 25.0% |
| Ghana | Manganese | 2.00 Mt | 10.0% |
What stands out
• The DRC is the clearest cobalt exposure
• Indonesia is the main nickel exposure
• South Africa, Gabon, and Ghana are the main manganese exposures
• New Caledonia is smaller on tonnage, but highly exposed relative to the size of its economy
That macro dependence matters. Some jurisdictions are not just exposed through mine supply. They are exposed through how important these exports are to the overall economy.
Table 2. Selected metal export value as a share of GDP
| Country | Metal proxy used | 2024 export value proxy | 2024 GDP | Export value as % of GDP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Caledonia | Nickel related exports | $1.32B | $8.55B | 15.4% |
| Gabon | Manganese ore | $1.70B | $20.9B | 8.1% |
| DRC | Cobalt | $3.05B | $70.96B | 4.3% |
| Indonesia | Ferronickel + nickel matte | ~$17.0B | $1.396T | 1.2% |
| South Africa | Manganese ore | $3.16B | $401.15B | 0.8% |
| Ghana | Manganese ore | $0.556B | $82.83B | 0.7% |
The main commercial losers are therefore not hard to identify:
• the DRC cobalt value chain
• Indonesia’s nickel complex
• manganese exporters led by South Africa, Gabon, and Ghana
• highly nickel dependent New Caledonia
• higher cost nickel producers elsewhere
Manganese may be the most overlooked part of the story. It gets less attention than nickel or cobalt, but nodules are manganese rich and the market is much smaller than copper. That means even one successful nodule operation could matter more to manganese pricing than many investors appreciate.
If deep sea mining works, it will not simply add supply. It will challenge existing control over some of the most concentrated metal markets in the world. That is why the fight over the seabed is becoming more intense. It is not only about the ocean floor. It is also about who gets to keep the rents.
