Mid-Fall Review: Interior Confirms the First Lease Sale

The Marine Minerals Administration, MMA, published the Final Leasing Notice for the American Samoa lease sale on October 19. The auction is on November 19. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, closed public comment the same day on the consolidated application of TMC USA, the U.S. subsidiary of The Metals Company (Nasdaq: TMC). American Metal said on October 16 that NOAA had certified its two exploration applications. Three lawsuits over the American process are before the federal court in Hawaii, and the first hearing is on October 30.

Odyssey Marine Exploration (Nasdaq: OMEX) set a December 2 vote on its merger with American Ocean Minerals. TMC's shares hit a 52-week low on October 13.

The companies

The Metals Company (Nasdaq: TMC)

TMC received no NOAA decision in the period.

• September 29: Liam Mallon, a former President of ExxonMobil Upstream Company, joined the board. Brendan May stepped down.
• September 30: two conservation groups sued NOAA over its May 26 certification of USA-B, TMC USA's stand-alone exploration license application.
• October 12 and 13: the shares fell 14 percent, then touched US$2.725, a 52-week low. NOAA held its virtual hearing on USA-A, the consolidated application, on October 13.
• October 13: chief executive Gerard Barron wrote to shareholders that U.S. government support is a prerequisite for the proposed Nodule City plant at Brownsville, Texas, and that the process "is taking longer than we expected". TMC will not pursue other capital markets transactions while those talks continue. Tolling at PAMCO in Japan, where PAMCO would process the nodules for a fee, remains open. TMC had expected USA-A to be certified in June.
• Ahead: certification of USA-A, third quarter results in November, and NOAA's permit decision, which TMC expects by the end of the first quarter of 2027.

I personally believe the decline is not based on anything fundamental, and we have seen periods like this over the years where negativity can feed on itself.

Gerard Barron, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of TMC, in a letter to shareholders published on October 13, 2026

Deep Sea Minerals (CSE: SEAS)

• September 23: it signed a non-binding letter of intent with Westwin Elements to evaluate U.S. processing of nodules. A definitive agreement would follow only after the company obtains mineral rights and recovery permits.
• September 24: it restated that NOAA found its exploration application in substantial compliance on May 26, which gives it priority of right over about 147,368 square kilometers of the Clarion-Clipperton Zone. It filed an amended application on July 17.
• October 19: it extended its investor relations agreement with Capital Gain Media to January 14, 2027 for US$100,000, and said it has spent about US$1.22 million on investor relations since January, more than it budgeted in March.
• Ahead: a full compliance determination from NOAA.

Odyssey Marine Exploration (Nasdaq: OMEX) and American Ocean Minerals (private)

• October 15: the SEC declared effective Odyssey's registration statement for the all-stock merger, agreed on April 8, 2026 and valued then at about US$1 billion.
• October 16: Odyssey set a special meeting for December 2 and a 1-for-25 reverse split, effected October 28, taking shares outstanding from about 58.6 million to about 2.3 million. The split is a condition of the financing for the combined company, which is to be renamed American Ocean Minerals Corporation and trade as AOMC.
• Ahead: proxy mailing from about October 19, and the vote on December 2.

American Metal (private)

• October 16: American Metal said NOAA had certified the exploration applications of its subsidiaries American Metal Resources and SeaX, about 270,000 square kilometers of the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, Reuters reported. NOAA published the two in March at 147,756 and 149,695 square kilometers, with priority only where they do not overlap an earlier applicant; the company did not explain the difference. An environmental review follows, which Reuters said may run into 2027. Chief executive David Ruddell's goal is a commercial mining permit within three years. NOAA's own list did not yet show the certifications on October 19.
• Ahead: a NOAA notice of intent to prepare an environmental impact statement.

Eco Minerals (private) and Impossible Metals (private)

• October 9: Eco Minerals' subsidiary Deep Sea Vision became Impossible Metals' exclusive exploration partner under a memorandum of understanding, subject to equipment availability. The two will also evaluate using Impossible Metals' Eureka collection technology in Eco Minerals' future projects.
• October 13: NOAA published Eco Minerals' exploration license application, covering areas of the Clarion-Clipperton Zone and an area between Guam and Wake Island. A virtual hearing is set for November 16 and comments close December 14.

Glomar Minerals (private) and Cobalt Blue (ASX: COB)

• September 26: the research vessel Tangaroa returned to Wellington from the 65-day survey of UK Seabed Resources' UK2 license area, Glomar's Clarion-Clipperton Zone ground. Greenpeace activists boarded the ship that morning and police removed five of them, the Otago Daily Times reported.
• September 28: Cobalt Blue was contracted by Glomar, for US$150,000, to deliver testwork, cost estimates and site layout for a Preliminary Economic Analysis of Project Infinity, the U.S. nodule refinery the two are assessing. The PEA is targeted for the fourth quarter.

MOBY Robotics (private)

• September 23: MOBY received Approval in Principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for its Mineral Production Platform, a 25-ton-capacity surface unit that raises its SmartLift system and transfers nodules to a transport vessel.

Elsewhere in the companies

• September 11: Allseas bought a fleet of hybrid-electric work-class remotely operated vehicles from Schilling Robotics, a unit of TechnipFMC (NYSE: FTI), rated to 6,000 meters, naming deep sea mineral collection among their markets.
• September 14: Green Manganese Technologies said bench-scale tests recovered more than 90 percent of the manganese, nickel, cobalt and copper in nodules in a single liquid chemical process. The results are the company's own.
• September 22: Chatham Rock Phosphate said it expects to relist on the NZX within about four weeks, keeping a 25 percent interest and a 2 percent royalty in Chatham Rise under its Wetstone Global deal.
• September 28: Mithril Minerals of Austin, Texas joined Breakthrough Energy's 2026 Fellows Program and plans to test a near-full-scale nodule collector robot at sea.

Where the US regulatory process stands

NOAA's comment period on TMC USA's consolidated application closed at the end of October 19. The Deep Sea Conservation Coalition, with 142 member organizations, filed comments opposing both the license and the permit. NOAA has not yet certified the application. Certification is the step USA-B reached on May 26, and it is the step now under challenge in court.

On the Interior side, Secretary Doug Burgum said on September 14 in Houston that deep-sea mining permits could come within months. On September 15 Governor Pulaali'i Nikolao Pula of American Samoa wrote to the MMA that "American Samoa does not support commercial deep-sea mineral extraction at this time", the Samoa Observer reported. He wants initial work limited to research and monitoring.

The MMA published the Final Leasing Notice on October 19 without changing the sale date. It offers two areas northeast and southeast of the Manu'a Islands, of 16,332,256 and 15,170,979 acres. Bidders' financial forms are due October 29. The sale, PACM-1, is an ascending oral auction at 9 a.m. Pacific Time on November 19 in Thousand Oaks, California. The minimum bonus bid is US$3,000,000 for each area and the primary term is 20 years. Royalties are 5 percent under a Delineation or Testing Plan, then 2 percent for the first five years of production under a Mining Plan and 5 percent after that. The MMA's release says a lease "only authorizes preliminary activities like mapping". Under the regulations a lease carries the rights to explore for and develop the minerals; work begins only after the MMA approves a plan for each stage.

Critical minerals are no longer just commodities; they are a vital strategic asset in global competition, essential for reaching our energy efficiency goals, strengthening our national defense, and securing domestic supply chains.

Mike Olsen, Acting Director of the Marine Minerals Administration, in the release of October 19, 2026 announcing the Final Leasing Notice

The second sale, PACM-2 off the Northern Mariana Islands, is still proposed for December 16, with no final notice yet. Guam's Governor Lou Leon Guerrero asked Interior on September 15 to include Guam in consultations.

Three cases are before the U.S. District Court for the District of Hawaii, all with Earthjustice as counsel: an August 18 challenge to the Endangered Species Act finding for the American Samoa sale, a September 8 challenge to the same finding for the Marianas sale, and the September 30 suit against NOAA over the USA-B certification, which argues that NOAA did not make the studies behind the application public. In the American Samoa case, Judge Jill Otake refused to postpone and kept the summary judgment hearing on October 30, three weeks before the sale, the Marianas Variety reported.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the World Bank Development Committee on October 14 that deep-sea mining is a sector where "the Bank can play a catalytic role by providing knowledge and guidance".

Where the ISA stands

The International Seabed Authority, ISA, has said nothing about its compliance inquiry into NORI and TOML, TMC's two contractors, since its session closed on July 31. The Seabed Disputes Chamber ordered compliance reports on July 18, and both sides filed them on August 31, according to an October 15 review by the law firm Foley Hoag. The reports have not been published. On September 19 the ISA published its summary of the July session, in which delegations asked the Secretariat for an advanced negotiating text of the mining code for the 32nd session. The Council next meets on March 8, 2027. NORI's exploration contract, extended in July, runs to July 2031.

The rest of the world

Pacific Islands Forum leaders, meeting in Koror, Palau from August 31 to September 3, endorsed an implementation plan for a member-led regional approach to deep sea minerals and took no position for or against mining. On September 1 the United States and New Zealand committed about US$60 million to upgrade the port at Penrhyn in the Cook Islands, which Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau tied to deep sea mining. On October 5 the Cook Islands Seabed Minerals Authority said exploration continues until 2032, Cook Islands News reported.

India opened a new offshore mineral auction on October 1: two Andaman Sea nodule and crust blocks of 1,632 square kilometers, with bids due December 28. Greenland's parliament voted unanimously on October 15 to ask the government to draft a ban on deep sea mining until at least the end of 2029, Agence France-Presse reported. Japan's full-scale test off Minamitorishima remains scheduled for February 2027.

Scheduled and expected catalysts

• October 29: bidders' financial forms for the American Samoa sale are due at the MMA.
• October 30: summary judgment hearing in Honolulu in the American Samoa lease sale case.
• November 3: U.S. midterm elections.
• Mid-November: TMC's third quarter results.
• November 16: NOAA's virtual hearing on Eco Minerals' application.
• November 19: Lease Sale PACM-1, American Samoa.
• December 2: Odyssey's special meeting on the American Ocean Minerals merger.
• December 16: proposed date of Lease Sale PACM-2, Northern Mariana Islands.
• December 28: bids due in India's offshore mineral auction.
• February 2027: Japan's full-scale test off Minamitorishima, and the end of the current term of the three Cook Islands exploration licenses.
• March 8, 2027: the ISA Council's 32nd session opens in Kingston.
• By the end of the first quarter of 2027: NOAA's decision on TMC USA's commercial recovery permit, on the company's expectation.