Key points
- RAND researchers Tom LaTourrette and Fabian Villalobos present a co-authored report analyzing seabed mining’s impact on critical mineral supply chains, terrestrial mining revenue, and geopolitics.
- The report projects nickel and cobalt demand could double, or rise as much as 14-fold for cobalt, by 2040, and estimates as few as three to 30 ships could supply projected US demand for these metals from seabed nodules.
- A case study on cobalt in the Democratic Republic of Congo finds the country would lose royalty revenue under every seabed mining scenario modeled, even with the most favorable ISA royalty-sharing terms.
- Recommendations include accelerating mapping of US seabed mineral resources, clarifying IRA tax credit eligibility for CCZ nodules, and coordinating with allies through bilateral and multilateral channels.
