Key points
- Roland Berger senior partner Dr. Wolfgang Bernhart presents the firm’s Q4 2023 forecast, projecting global lithium-ion battery demand to roughly triple from about 1,500 GWh in 2024 to near 4.5 TWh by 2030, with sodium-ion adding up to 500 GWh.
- Bernhart says announced global cell manufacturing capacity for 2030 totals around 9 TWh, roughly 80% above his optimistic demand estimate, which he says will create sustained price pressure, particularly in Europe.
- He forecasts LFP and LMFP chemistries reaching a 40-45% market share by 2030, while high-nickel NMC/NCA share is revised down to 20-25%, and names silicon-carbon composite anodes as the most promising near-term technology for energy density and fast charging.
- Impossible Metals founder Oliver says the company is working to make nickel-rich cells cheaper than LFP by lowering nickel and cobalt costs through deep-sea mineral supply, citing higher recycle value for nickel-rich chemistries as an added advantage.
